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About the project |
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Project Code (Number): 1ET400300513
The work was supported by the grant project No: 1ET100300513 of the
Grant Agency of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
in the frame of the program "Information Society".
The project has started on January 1st, 2005 and is planned for 5 years.
(1.1.2005 - 31.12.2009)
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Project characteristic |
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The main aim of the proposed project is development of mathematical statistical models
for estimation of natural gas consumption for individual consumers whose consumption is
not measured on a daily or monthly basis. A further task is modelling and forecasting
natural gas consumption for different segments of the gas market and for different regions.
The proposed mathematical models and methods will be tested using the gas consumption
measurements of selected consumers. These data will be provided by gas distribution
companies in the Czech Republic and Slovakia.
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Outputs of the project |
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Papers in national and international journals, conference publications, presentations
Unique gas consumption database for research purposes
Know-how of mathematical modelling of gas consumption
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Possible usage of the outputs |
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Natural gas purchase and sale balancing
- Monthly supply for small commercial and residential customers
- Line losses calculation (technical units, costs)
- Small commercial and household supply structure
- Gas consumption forecasting
- Load profiles
- Risk management
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Trading and marketing support
- Supply structure and time development profiling (technical/monetary units)
- Analysis of seasonal behaviour and consumption dynamics (price elasticity, temperature gradient etc.)
- Analysis of migrations between price segments
- Marketing analysis
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Distribution support
- Maximum day structure analysis
- Capacity pool control and optimization
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Keywords |
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Mathematical modelling
Statistical models
GAMMA model
Natural gas consumption forecasting
Load profiles
Risk management
Marketing analysis
Capacity pool control
Optimization
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