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Research Groups of Nonlinear Modelling - Institute of Computer Science - Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
Mathematical Modelling of Natural Gas Consumption for Small and Middle Clients
Project 1ET400300513
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About the project

Project Code (Number): 1ET400300513
The work was supported by the grant project No: 1ET100300513 of the Grant Agency of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic in the frame of the program "Information Society".
The project has started on January 1st, 2005 and is planned for 5 years.
(1.1.2005 - 31.12.2009)

Project characteristic

The main aim of the proposed project is development of mathematical statistical models for estimation of natural gas consumption for individual consumers whose consumption is not measured on a daily or monthly basis. A further task is modelling and forecasting natural gas consumption for different segments of the gas market and for different regions. The proposed mathematical models and methods will be tested using the gas consumption measurements of selected consumers. These data will be provided by gas distribution companies in the Czech Republic and Slovakia.

Outputs of the project

  • Papers in national and international journals, conference publications, presentations
  • Unique gas consumption database for research purposes
  • Know-how of mathematical modelling of gas consumption
  • Possible usage of the outputs

  • Natural gas purchase and sale balancing
    • Monthly supply for small commercial and residential customers
    • Line losses calculation (technical units, costs)
    • Small commercial and household supply structure
    • Gas consumption forecasting
    • Load profiles
    • Risk management
  • Trading and marketing support
    • Supply structure and time development profiling (technical/monetary units)
    • Analysis of seasonal behaviour and consumption dynamics (price elasticity, temperature gradient etc.)
    • Analysis of migrations between price segments
    • Marketing analysis
  • Distribution support
    • Maximum day structure analysis
    • Capacity pool control and optimization

    Keywords

    Mathematical modelling
    Statistical models
    GAMMA model
    Natural gas consumption forecasting
    Load profiles
    Risk management
    Marketing analysis
    Capacity pool control
    Optimization

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